The 59th European Cup (Champion's League or CL) Final takes place tomorrow between Spanish sides Real and Atletico Madrid, in Lisbon's iconic Estadio la Luz (Stadium of Light). This is the 1st time 2 sides from the same city are contesting the final, and the 5th time for 2 sides from the same country. Madrid would not be high on the list of cities where 2 clubs could contest the Final, Manchester, Milan and London, would be the more obvious choices, simply because Atleti (their nickname) have spent the bulk of their history in Real's shadow and are not frequent qualifiers for Europe's premier club event.
However this has been a season to remember for the Red and Whites. They displaced the 2 giants of Spanish football, Real and Barcelona, to win their first La Liga title since 1996. This is the 1st time in 10 seasons that neither of the big 2 has won the league title. It's all the more remarkable because Atleti have the smaller squad and had sold their top striker, Falcao. before the season commenced. But Atleti have managed to find a suitable replacement in Brazilian born Spanish international Diego Costa, whose goals helped propel them to the title, together with a mean defense and astute management by Diego Simeone. Atleti are also unbeaten in Europe this season and can become the 7th team to win the CL in this fashion, should they triumph on Saturday.
But it's unfair to say Atleti are a 1 man team. Simeone has fashioned a team with strong work ethics, determination and their goals are not solely dependent on Costa. In his 3 seasons in charge, Simeone has won a trophy every year and this is not some fluke. However questions mark remain on the fitness of Costa and Turkish midfielder, Arda Turan. Costa limped off with a hamstring problem in last Sunday's title decider against Barcelona. However both he and Turan did train yesterday and have provisionally been declared available for the Final. It remains to be seen whether both will start or play a part in the Final. I think the latter is the more practical option. However despite this Atleti have another proven striker in David Villa. Although some may suggest he's not the same player that moved to Barca or when at Valencia, he still has scored 13 goals this season, once every 3 games. And he's a proven big match striker. And they still have the services of Spanish duo, Koke and Adrian Lopez. Marshalled by captain Gabi and Brazilian midfielder Diego, they have proven a tough nut to crack.
Real Madrid on the other hand need little introduction, managed by Italian Carlo Ancelotti, they are famed for their 'BRB' combination - Benzema, Ronaldo and Bale. Both Bale (the most expensive player in the world) and Ronaldo, the FIFA Balon D'Or winner, had picked up knocks prior to the final and have been largely rested and now declared fit. Besides these 3, Real also can call upon the services of Xabi Alonso, Luca Modric, striker Angel di Maria as well as the defensive qualities of Sergio Ramos and Iker Casillas. There is no question of their pedigree or abilities. When on song, Real are simply irresistible. Bale took some time to settle but now has found a productive role alongside Ronaldo and Benzema.
Form
Of course in any preview, one has to look at the form of the teams. Strangely both seem to have gone off the boil since winning their respective semi-finals. Atleti were red-hot favourites to land La Liga before their 2nd leg semi-final with Chelsea, but have not won since then. You could say they stumbled to the title losing to Levante, drawing with Malaga, and went into the decider against Barcelona as slight under-dogs. Only the fact they needed a draw saved them, as Barca took the lead at the Camp Nou but could not prevent Diego Godin's equaliser.
Atleti has nullified the other world great Lionel Messi, in all of their encounters with Barcelona this season.
Real on the other hand had the League title in their destiny, had they won their remaining fixtures, they would have become Champions. But they too went a lean run and surrendered the title to their cross-town rivals, although they finished the season with a 2-0 win over Espanyol.
But it's in the Champions League that we must look at where and how well these 2 have performed. Atleti easily won their group winning 5 and drawing 1 of their 6 games, before spanking AC Milan in the last 16 including an eye catching win at the San Siro. They started as huge under-dogs to Barcelona in the quarters, but somehow have been able to find Barca's number this season. They played Barcelona 6 times this season and have not lost. They drew 0-0 away before an early Koke strike was enough to see off the Catalans and book a place against Jose Mourinho's Chelsea. Chelsea defended well at the Vincente Calderon (Atleti's ground) but were swept aside by a brilliant counter-attack in the return leg. Atleti won 3-1 despite going a goal down. This has been their forte, they don't seem to panic when going behind, instead stick to the game plan and await the opportunity to strike back with a serene patience.
Real have been equally impressive. Winning their group, they swamped German side Schalke 6-1 away in the 1st leg of the last 16, killing off the tie. In the quarters, they had a chance to avenge last season's semi-final defeat to Borussia Dortmund. They won the 1st leg 3-0 at their Santiago Bernabeu ground, but seemed a little disinterested in the return leg, losing 2-0. But they never really looked in any danger of elimination. But their true capabilities were on full display in April. Before their titanic struggle with reigning champions Bayern Munich in the semi-finals, there was the 'small matter' of a Copa del Rey Final with 'a certain Barcelona' in neutral Valencia.
Di Maria scored early but Barca eventually equalised, before Gareth Bale showed his true potential with an incredible winner. Real then hosted Bayern, scored early and closed shop leaving the Germans to respond in the Allianz Arena. Instead it was again Real, who showed their quality, 2 quick fire headers from Ramos gave them a commanding lead, before Ronaldo scored from a trade-mark free-kick. He scored another and they romped to an impressive 5-0 victory on aggregate against Europe's top side.
History
It seems silly to link what happened in the past to the present when in comes to a football match, especially the distant past. But say what you will, the CL (or European Cup) Finals have a strange pattern that somehow repeats itself. Real are in their 13th Final, having won 9 of the previous 12. Maybe we can discount the first 8, including the first 5 which they won in a row, including a standout 7-3 win in 1960 in Glasgow over Frankfurt.
Since 1966, they have been in 4 Finals, losing the first in 1981 to Liverpool but winning the next 3, the last of which was in 2002, also in Glasgow. It's kinda strange that they have taken 12 years to reach another final despite consistently having some of the best players in the world, but that shows you how tough it is to win this tournament. They stand on the verge of winning 'La Decima' - their 10th European Cup. They will know from recent history that chances like this don't come often especially with strong challengers like Bayern, Barca, Chelsea, Man City and PSG all fancying their chances next season and beyond.
Atleti are in their second Final, after losing the 1974 Final in a replay to Bayern Munich. (They drew 1-1 before being outclassed 4-0). Now comes the history bit, in a strange way, several teams have gone on to win their 2nd Final after losing their first. These include AC Milan, Ajax, Juventus, Hamburg and most recently Chelsea. Only 3 teams again lost their 2nd Final, ominously for Atleti, 2 are Spanish teams, Barcelona and Valencia, while the other, Stade Reims lost - you guessed it- to Real, in 1959.
This 1st same city Final has an eerie similarity to the 2000 Final, the first between 2 sides from the same country. That saw Real take on Valencia in near identical similarities. Real had the stronger attacking nous, led by Raul, marshalled by the gifted Fernando Redondo and with a British player - Steve McNanaman. Valencia were the immovable rock in defense and saw off stronger challengers enroute to the Final. But the immovable rock were brushed aside by the irresistible force - Real swamping Valencia 3-0.
In all 4 previous same country Finals, the favourites won, Real in 2000, Milan in 2003 (although Juve won the league, Milan were the better Cup team), 2008 saw Man Utd defeat Chelsea, while last year saw Bayern defeat Dortmund 2-1. 1 other fact in Real's favour, the referee, Bjorn Kuipers is from Holland. This is the 5th time a Dutch referee is given the gig and in all previous 4, the favourites won, Real in 1957, Benfica 1962, Liverpool 1978 and Bayern in 2001.
My Prediction
You can brush history aside, but you cannot simply ignore the present situation. Atleti will sweat on Costa and Turan's fitness, but even if they play, you cannot argue that they possess the better team than Real, despite being unbeaten to them in La Liga, including a win at the Santiago Bernabeu. Real did get their revenge winning home and away in the Copa del Rey semi-finals in February.
Ronaldo has proven he's able to live up to the big match climate, he also scored for Man United in the 2008 Final and responded brilliantly to score 4x for Portugal in the World Cup play-offs with Sweden last November, who had taken the advantage through a Zlatan Ibrahimovic hat-trick. He's clearly the man that drives Real forward, but even if he's silenced, Bale has now stepped up to the plate.
Atleti will be calm and try to stifle Real and hope to bring them to extra-time and possibly win on penalties, but I think it's hard to stop Real from scoring. Moreover they seem to have abandoned everything else and focussed solely on this match after beating Bayern. Play the same way as they did in Munich, they will surely light up the Stadium of Light.
Carlo Ancelotti is on the verge of another historic achievement. He's definitely as good as they come, as Chelsea, Milan and PSG will testify.
I am going for a 3-1 victory for Real Madrid, allowing Ancelotti, himself a master of big European Finals, to join an elite list of managers who've won the Cup with 2 different clubs and the 2nd to win 3 (after Liverpool's Bob Paisely).